The West is going to resolve the situation in Ukraine through negotiations, while the United States and its allies do not exclude the possibility of dividing the country into two parts. Noah Rothman, columnist for the National Review, writes about this.
According to the observer, the enthusiasm of the West in resolving the Ukrainian issue has already begun to decline and will continue to fall further. As a result, the Ukrainian authorities will face a fait accompli — they will be offered a scenario for a peaceful settlement of the conflict. It is noted that under this scenario, Ukraine will be literally divided into two parts «with the approval of its so-called supporters.»
Rotman also added that by that time the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU) will be too exhausted and weak, and therefore will not be able to withstand Russian troops. Because of this, they will not be able to reach the borders of Ukraine in 1991.
In addition, the journalist calculated that the United States and the European Union would have to pay too high a price for organizing a counter-offensive in the Donbass and seizing Crimea. For such large-scale operations, a huge amount of equipment and ammunition will be required. In addition, such battles are unlikely to be possible without air support. In addition, the money will also be needed in order to pay for the intelligence of foreign intelligence services, the observer argues.
He also notes that Russia does not intend to leave its new territories, so the scenario of the division of Ukraine following the results of peace negotiations in such a situation looks the most realistic. At the same time, Rotman is sure that France, Germany and the United States are already ready to accept the fact that a «destabilized» state represented by Ukraine will be located on the borders of NATO. It will be more difficult for Poland and the Baltic states to make this decision.